Brief On Setting Your Portfolio Up For Success

If a house is properly cleaned regularly, the yearly cleaning will be an easy lift. However, if the house is cleaned once a year, there will be much scrubbing involved. The same thing goes for pharmaceutical portfolio management!


At Captario, we believe that to set your portfolio up for success you must be dynamic in the maintenance of your data. A data management process that ensures that data is continuously up to speed will give credibility to the information you are using, and all involved parties will believe in the numbers. Further, having updated data across the organization in real-time in your book of business will allow you the best possible support for the decision you are about to make. It is unrealistic to expect any forecasting tool to provide a definite true answer; nevertheless, we can pivot the data so decision-makers can base their decisions on updated, feasible, and realistic data. For us, that is intelligence augmentation.

See also our eBook: The Art of Pharma Decision-Making

When asked to point out one key thing with our modeling and simulation techniques, we say; ”always include uncertainty in the input data.” We advocate not looking at single values, but all potential outcomes and then reflecting them in a decision model. As forecasting uncertainty comes in many forms, such as operational activities, cost deviations, or delays, this adds to significant variance. To adjust for this variance, we represent uncertainty as ranges in the analysis. This means that we get the corresponding uncertainty on the output data, and we can make more nuanced decisions with more comprehensive informational depth.

At a glance, comparing uncertainty-adjusted values with fixed, pre-set values may initially appear similar. Moreover, there are more underlying aspects to this. One aspect could be if there are dependencies between assets, another if there are mandatory assets that are not up for decision, and a third that launch timing becomes shifted. Leveraging ranges to adjust for this uncertainty leaves us with more wiggle room to model our template after reality rather than having our reality modeled after the template. Since fixed values are static by definition, a model based on such values will only represent the desired outcome of the model instead of the expected outcome.

See also: About Model Story Precision


With continuous data updates and the inclusion of ranges in forecasting models, pharmaceutical companies can be more apt to handle portfolio uncertainty and discover its hidden opportunities or risks. Assembling the latest data becomes cheaper, more time-efficient, and will keep you at the frontline of decision optimization, setting you up for portfolio success.


This can be done in Captario SUM®.