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A Brief Case Study on Portfolio Scenario Planning

A large-cap global pharma company with a robust, diversified portfolio used Captario SUM® to model portfolio launch behavior over time and understand how delaying and terminating products at specific times affects launch behavior.

The Customer's Position

The customer is a large-cap global pharmaceutical company with a robust portfolio of 70 different assets across different therapeutic areas and methods of action (MoAs), including gene therapies. In preparation for the annual portfolio review, the customer wanted to see how to model multiple scenarios in which their asset’s development timelines were delayed, terminated, or both during the upcoming fiscal year.

Captario ’s Role

Captario partnered with the customer to build and populate models in Captario SUM®, which reflected each asset's development and commercialization strategy. Key assumptions for this type of modeling included placing delays and terminations under uncertainty. After simulation, Captario constructed a customized dashboard in Captario SUM® to address the customer’s key business questions.

Customer's Key Business Questions

  • Given the current portfolio, how does the delay of the launch of certain assets affect cash flow and other key metrics?

  • What is the impact of delay/termination scenarios on assets and overall portfolio cash flow?

  • What products are mission-critical to achieving corporate goals and should be prioritized to minimize the risk of delay or termination?

Key Findings

Captario helped the customer understand how delays and terminations affected the portfolio regarding cash flow, phase transitions, and overall activity timelines. Captario worked with the customer to strategize the optimal delay and termination combinations to maximize their cashflows and see the progress of their phase transitions.

Using visuals from Captario SUM®, Captario was able to show the customer a progression of cash flow data over time with the possible delays and terminations implemented into specific programs.


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