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A Brief Case Study on Disease Area Scenario Planning

A large-cap global pharmaceutical company with an immunology portfolio used Captario SUM® to understand what assets to prioritize within their portfolio, including how to strategize internal asset-building vs. external asset acquisition. Captario worked with the customer to provide a better understanding of future portfolio behavior, scenario plan acquisitions, and to compare the different scenarios dynamically to each other. Each scenario factored in delays and resourcing needs.

The Customer's Position

The customer is a large-cap global pharmaceutical company with an immunology portfolio of five different assets. The customer wanted to compare the financial implications such as revenue, cost, and net present value (NPV) of building out their immunology franchise under different strategies including internal asset development vs. external acquisitions.

Captario’s Role

Captario partnered with the customer to build and populate models in Captario SUM® for each immunology asset, where individual models reflected different potential development and commercialization strategies. Captario modeled which assets to prioritize, which relationships existed across assets, and how to strategize internal asset-building vs. external asset acquisition, factoring in delays due to acquisition timing. Key assumptions (duration, cost, PTRS, revenue potential) were placed under uncertainty to assess the range of potential outcomes. After simulation, Captario constructed a customized dashboard in Captario SUM® to address the customer’s key business questions.

Customer's Key Business Questions

  • Given the current portfolio, what do NPV and revenue look like in 20 years (risk-adjusted), and how does acquisition timing affect these metrics?

  • Which internal efforts vs. asset acquisitions are mission-critical to maximizing these outcomes?

  • Under these scenarios, what are the resourcing requirements, and is resourcing available to execute the proposed franchise build steps?

  • How can external assets help bridge the gap to increase the probability of maximizing 20-year value and revenue goals?

Key Findings

Captario provided the customer with scenario resourcing plans and portfolio optimization for the immunology portfolio. By construction, the acquisition of external assets with the defined parameters was more valuable (rNPV) over a 20-year window when compared to an internal build. Captario then worked with the customer to develop and test prioritization strategies for the timing of acquisitions and resourcing to increase the probability of achieving successful future planning.


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