Designing the Future Pipeline: A New Lens on Portfolio Strategy

Two years ago, my colleague Stig Johan Wiklund and I published an article in Pharmaceutical Statistics that looked at a different angle of portfolio optimization.

Most optimization work focuses on how to allocate resources across the current portfolio. We asked a different question:

👉What kind of projects should we be bringing into the portfolio in the first place?

We defined four distinct project archetypes, each with its own profile for investment, risk, timeline, and potential return. We then tested how different objective functions—like maximizing NPV under budget constraints, or minimizing cost while meeting revenue targets — could influence the ideal mix of new projects to add.

This perspective—focused on pipeline replenishment rather than portfolio rebalancing—has become even more relevant as R&D organizations look to future-proof their pipelines.

In Captario SUM, we now support this thinking through project generators. These allow us to model future pipeline strategies dynamically by configuring generators that represent different archetypes—fast followers, high-risk/high-reward projects, incremental add-ons, and more.

With generators, we can explore questions like:

🧩 What mix of projects gets us to our future revenue goals?

🧩 How do different sourcing strategies affect risk and timing?

🧩 What if we adjust our modality balance or BD focus?

It becomes possible to build replenishment strategies, test assumptions, and adjust quickly—all while maintaining a clear connection between strategic goals and portfolio composition. If you're thinking about pipeline design rather than just portfolio maintenance, this approach might be worth a look.