Fast Track, Fast Impact: Modeling the Strategic Upside

Fast Track designation can change the game for a project. The chart below shows the difference it can make: blue dots are outcomes without Fast Track, orange dots are outcomes with it. Each dot represents one full simulation of the project.

Without Fast Track, value is concentrated in the 1–4 billion USD range (assuming launch), with expected launch dates from 2029 to 2031. With Fast Track, the picture shifts completely: outcomes move up to 3–10 billion USD, and launches come forward to 2026–2027.

What makes this analysis powerful is that it doesn’t assume certainty. We kept uncertainty in development timelines, trial costs, pricing, market size, and market share. We also modeled competitors and their possible entry windows. Market share, in particular, was highly sensitive to who reached the market first.

This is project strategy modeling at its best. With flexible models and Monte Carlo simulation, we see not just two static NPV numbers but a full distribution of possible outcomes. That allows us to understand the upside, the downside, and the likelihood of reaching our targets for NPV, ROI, peak sales, and beyond. It also gives us insights into how much we can invest to increase our chances of receiving Fast Track, and thus becomes a strategic management tool!

Enjoy your weekend!